90% Win Rate (Possible Through Options)

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33 thoughts on “90% Win Rate (Possible Through Options)”

  1. Very nice video! Step 0 in the process is to decide which ticker to use to execute the campaign. How is TSLA chosen?

  2. It is very helpful to me because I learned how to use delta to get the estimation of win rate. The key points for the success of this strategy – 1. trend of the specific stock; 2. skill to know when to do the roll over; 3. get good price of the options (retail traders may not be able to get the best price). We need know that an option contact's EV value is about 0 when created.

  3. Seth, this is a lot of good information. Does this strategy have to be done every couple of months? Can it be done monthly or weekly? Thanks,

  4. Had 26Jan $MSTR 495/485 Credit Put spread that went against me. Waited for my Long Put to gain over 50% Delta, then bought back the shorts(495's) and rode the 485's down for a profit yesterday based on support/Resistance levels, closing the position for a profit before $MSTR bouncing at support, a successful morph. SMB video in that regard would be a good idea. Yet another tool, like Rolling, in the event a credit spread goes against the Trader.

  5. Hi Seth, In each example you allowed trades to expire worthless rather than closing them. In most cases do you prefer that? What about after-hours trading? How often does the trade turn against you after the market is closed, moving the position from OTM to ITM, resulting in an assignment? Thanks for your feedback.

  6. I have no idea but this guy makes even more complicated when he explain the option. Not even understood any of his videos. Better there are other option teachers more easier I supposed.
    I got out from this channel.

  7. if interest rates go up where should i look to put money into? I currently have $800k in a high yield savings account, yes I’m making gains but to what extent with inflation eating away at the dollar.

  8. Seth, great video! May I ask why you're using a 2 month expiration pls? Is that an optimization from a study?
    I'm in the middle of a study doing something very similar except with SPY and weekly options.

  9. You watch interviews of traders from this firm , seems like everyone is on their own , not sure what are they good for with all the prop forms offering better services these days .

  10. Bare with me but isn’t a 90% chance of winning 10% equal to a 10% chance of losing 90%? Over time, statically you would break even, no?

  11. A 90% win rate would allow you to make a lot of money and stop having to make YouTube videos, so… come on!

  12. Thanks Seth for the "rolling down" short put strike strategy. A lot of time, traders just got panic and buy back the spread by taking loss. I like this strategy.

  13. Absolutely awful advice. Something with a 10% chance of happening that can wipe out your profits when it does happen. If I lay (bet against) a horse with a 10% chance of winning the bookies will price that up at odds of 10.0 (or 9/1 in fractional odds), if I lay a 10.0 price horse for $10 then my liability is $90 and my potential winnings are $10. If I bet in 9 races and the horse loses each time I will win $90. If on the tenth race that horse wins I will lose $90 so back to square one.

  14. Hello, very helpful video. One question. is this strategy for margin account? I'm using a cash account and with my broker if i want to sell 1 contact with strike price $105 it means i need to have on my account $10500 to lock the money in case the price goes below and has to be executed.

  15. Agree with those that say that this video is not deceptive, especially not “super deceptive”. It’s a probability based trade where the statistical probability of the trade being profitable is approximately defined by the option delta. Also Seth goes to the trouble of suggesting a strategy of dealing with a situation where the market threatens the short strike by rolling down the position to the original option deltas. One suggestion I might add would be to add some sort of trend filter such as the 200 day ma and only take trades in that direction.

  16. What are you trying to accomplish with that weird funnel. I got an edge, want to work for SMB. Easy.

  17. Would have lost $15000 if stock went down. When selling puts the stock can be taken away and your out 15 big ones. Horrible strategy in my pov.

  18. This strategy’s risk reward ratio is not sustainable….the 10% time you lose, will take away all the gains from the 90% wins

  19. If you're rolling down & out why not just sell the Put. Forget about buying the protecting Put as you don't need it. ?

  20. Thank you for the clear presentation but I think you glossed over the most important part – Why pick Tesla and Why continue to sell put credit spreads on this security? So often options are presented as a blind percentage purchase but in reality, each 60 days you need to decide if you want to enter into the trade. What is the decision process that leads one to a better win rate? That is more important than just aiming for a Delta. Is it RSI? I agree that the first trade was a true high probability trade as the stock was way down in oversold territory. Every trade after that seemed like a guess – which is scary.

  21. Great explanation on options.. been trading for awhile and I still have troubles understanding it.. lol
    This video helps me get closer to understanding it.

  22. Seth, thanks, your vids have been great. HOW do you backtest and get the old data for your examples? Would love an expose on this topic.!!!!

  23. A Delta 10 option does indeed give you a 90 % chance of winning from all prices from 0 to infinity. However, the premiums you get at these levels are too small to be of much use. It is commonly accepted that options are priced such that the Expected Range from the current price at the expiration will fall within 1 Standard Deviation of the current price. This Expected Move is then plus and minus Delta 16. Most traders base their trades on 90 % of this expected Move which means they buy at the Delta 20 levels. I completely agree that a credit spread at one of these levels is a good plan. For example a Bull Put Spread bought at the minus Delta 20 would give you a 90% chance of profit within the Expected Move range and it would be close enough to the current price to provide a reasonable profit.

  24. Can anyone give me some advice? I opened 225,227.5 put credit spreads on Tesla, but this went down significantly so I rolled over to next week. This was my first time opening credit spreads ever. My account size was 2000, but I got greedy and I tried to make $80 in a week, with potential loss of 500. My broker says I can't even roll further out because my account size is less than 2000. My current spread is already losing $310 including the loss from the original spread. I was thinking of buying a put option to stop bleeding more, but I think that eventually increases the risk so I didn't buy. Should I just take the loss and move on? What can I do at this point?

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